Elusive 10-year rate of 2% or higher is in the year-ahead outlooks of institutions such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley.
Major financial firms, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley, are back to forecasting a 2% and higher 10-year Treasury yield for 2022, backed by expectations for stronger U.S. growth.
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, a division of Morgan Stanley MS, -0.63%, foresees a scenario next year that includes “a robust global recovery, a moderation of U.S. growth and inflation, and more balanced monetary and fiscal policies,” Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett wrote in a 2022 outlook released this week.
But expectations for central-bank policy also matter and “the U.S. Federal Reserve has provided the most tangible and imminent indication of liftoff,” or the first rate increase, “to this point,” according to portfolio managers Erin Browne and Geraldine Sundstrom of Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO. The firm, which managed $2.2 trillion as of September, expects “government bond yields to trend higher over the cycle as central banks raise rates.
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