Switzerland's largest bank has warned that a global economic recovery will take much longer than many investors expect.
said both sides were "close" to reaching a "phase one" trade deal but did not offer any details on where or when it might be signed." on trade, though he blamed the situation on past leaders of the world's largest economy.UBS' Kapteyn warned about the dangers of a "real disconnect" in financial markets, with relatively weak economic data contrasting with hopes of a comprehensive breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks.
Even if the world's two largest economies secure a limited trade agreement over the coming weeks, Kapteyn warned that "economically, nothing snaps back." That's because the "auto cycle is still working its way out, you've got the tech cycle that's actually recovering, we think, second half of next year and the shale cycle is very uncertain."
"Our fear is that actually you are going to get a recovery, but it is much later than people think, and it is on a trajectory that is much flatter than people expect."The Washington D.C.-based institute said it anticipated global growth would be 3% this year, down from 3.6% last year, and a 0.3 percentage point reduction from its April forecast.Related Tags
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