Airlines May Need 25% Fewer Planes From Airbus, Boeing Over Next Five Years. That’s An Optimistic Forecast.

Airlines will need 6,300 new aircraft over the next 5 years, estimates Robert Stallard, an analyst with Vertical Research Partners—about 2,000 fewer than he’d forecast just a few months ago

He expects Airbus deliveries will come in 21% lower than he’d previously forecast from 2020 through 2024, off 1,012 planes, while Boeing's will be down 26%, or 931 planes.roughly $115 billion in value ,24%This and other estimates may be too conservative, says Richard Aboulafia,’s vice president of analysis, given the many unknowns as to the length of the pandemic, how travelers will respond and the effectiveness of government efforts to support airlines, manufactures and the global economy.

He sees demand being hit proportionately harder for the widebodies used on international routes, which are seeing the steepest fall-off in flying, and the 737 MAX: he expects Boeing to deliver just 30 a month of its flagship narrowbody in 2023 and 2024.

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