America's four-pronged strategy for 'constitutional regime change' in Venezuela
the date of the Russian revolution,” notes Elliott Abrams, Donald Trump’s special representative for Venezuela. “We have no ability to predict when regimes collapse. But we’re heightening the contradictions.”
On March 22nd the Treasury added Venezuela’s state development bank to the list of bodies with which American financial institutions should have no dealings. This will “shut down their whole network of dollar transactions”, says a senior administration official. Individuals in the regime and family members, some of whom are studying at American universities, have had their bank accounts blocked and their visas revoked.
Although the armed forces have stuck by Mr Maduro, the government does not trust them. Army units have their weapons locked up at night and their fuel rationed, says the American official. A former Venezuelan intelligence officer has revealed videos of dissident officers being tortured. The government is using paramilitary forces to suppress demonstrations and arrest opposition activists, and relies on 2,000-5,000 Cuban intelligence and security personnel to prevent any military rebellion.
The administration insists that the regime is weaker and the opposition stronger than at the start of the year. “Maduro can’t govern, I think that’s setting in,” says the official. “So eventually it will be difficult for them to stay in power.” Maybe. Perhaps the collapse of public services will prompt a popular uprising. But after the massive demonstrations that followed Mr Guaidó’s proclamation as interim president, there are signs that the opposition is losing heart and momentum.
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