In our hurricane season preview, the meteorologists discuss the factors that will impact the number of storms that form this year and reveal the names that will be used.
Listen now and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts | Spotify | RSS Feed | Omny Studio The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1, but we're already getting some early indications of what to expect. The first hurricane forecasts of the year are coming out.
Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Across the Sky, our Lee Enterprises Weather podcast. I'm Matt Holliner, covering weather for all of Lee's Midwest websites, apps and social media accounts. And I'm joined by my fellow meteorologist Joe Martucci with a press of Atlantic City in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and Sean Sublette with the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Richmond, Virginia.
But it was 11 years ago here, you know, looking at the Colorado State University forecast, they're kind of like the gold standard, along with the National Hurricane Center for these forecasts fairly average for this compared to climatology. So, you know, 13 named storms averages 14.46 hurricanes. The average is 7.2 major hurricanes. That's category three. Four or five hurricanes is a to average is three.
These exercises in seasonal hurricane forecasting are very important so that we get a better understanding of how the ocean and the atmosphere kind of react in this way and what kind of seasons do they produce. You know, I, I don't know if you guys get this, but I still get a lot of like, well, why bother doing this if it only takes one?
And that tends to inhibit hurricane development, doesn't prevent it, but of course, it backs it off a fair bit. But at the same time, we've got very high temperatures with respect to normal of the water and the Atlantic. So there's also this kind of academic idea in my head. So which one of these things is going to win out?
So it's an opposite effect. LA Nina enhances Atlantic hurricane season. El Nino causes it to typically be lower. But the catch this year is we're seeing above normal sea surface temperatures in Atlantic.
We had nothing. We ended up calling on the second. Then we had Danielle in September. I believe at that time I believe I believe maybe you guys know, was it the only time we in Tropical history we were without a named storm in August? They remember that. I feel like that was a nugget that seems to stick in in my head, at least in the modern era, at least in the satellite era.
And they didn't get a lot of rain starting back to last year. And I'm looking at now a year ago, 21% at this time Florida was in drought, now it's 66%. And there was that increase throughout the summer and fall of last year, which got them to that point. So, yeah, I mean, and again, you know, that that was good, that we were that we were quiet, you know, relatively quiet through August.
And Ian was retired from last year. And do y'all remember what was the other one that was retired last year? Yeah, that was Fiona. Diana. Yes. Yeah. Which was just like two weeks before Ian did a lot of damage in the Canadian Maritimes of all places. Yeah, Yeah. I think it was the most costly storm to hit Canada.
And you know, all this I mean, Joe, you know about this way more than I do, buddy. But yeah, yeah. These things, no matter what their category, they do damage. You know, Sandy, of course, was well, it wasn't technically a cat one at landfall as opposed tropical cyclone. Just to speak on behalf of my New Jersey brethren, our last landfalling hurricane was back in the 19 tens.
I think that was part of the impetus for doing it. If it was. Yeah. Why do you suppose the original impetus, the impetus that's a good that's a good vocab word for it for our Across the Sky podcast listeners, I think with that that was such a great word, Sean. I think, well, we'll take it. That also starts with I know, yes it does it also, but I will retire for a little bit after that.
But to recap their forecasts for this Atlantic hurricane season beginning June 1st, 2023, and going through November 30th, they're calling for 13 named storms. And of those 13 named storms, that includes tropical storms and hurricanes. Of those 13 named storms, six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. And compare that to a normal year, we typically see 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
So that's why you can't let your guard down, even though it's technically being forecast right now.
You know, I, I think people believe that that forecast cone is 100% certainty and it's not. So I always like to get on on that. I think we do such a good job. I think it's time to become a little more confident and expand it. I think there's a lot of merit to that argument. Joe. I think know, after last year and what happened with the end, there was a lot of people revisiting the cone and what the cone really meant.
But this is where we feel with 75% confidence or whatever percent confidence, this is where it's going to be in this timeframe. You know, the other thing I'd like to see this is tougher, but start when we were Hurricane center puts these things out.
But that's very early on. And so people and of course, that gets lots of buzz on social media. And then, you know, especially once you do get a story, it looks like it's going to go into the Gulf. Then we have to say the whole Gulf Coast has to be on alert because there's still a lot of uncertainty where this is going to go.
Yeah, and there's been a couple of options out there to change. You know how the cone looks.
So maybe especially if you have a w the W we don't want to get to the W storm, but we do have it on the list, so let's just run through it real quick. Most likely we will get an Arlene that is Storm one, number one. And also by the way, remember these these names alternate between female and male. And this is an international list of names. It's the World Meteorological Organization. It puts together these names. So that's why it's not just us names. It is names from around the world. And that's why you sometimes hear some unusual odd names, and especially when it comes to the ice storms, because so many have been retired, sometimes have to go and find some rather unique names.
Would it be kind of odd to cover a storm with your name? I'm going to go. Yeah, I remember doing it with a hurricane, Matt. Now, to be clear, I was in Cincinnati, Ohio, at the time. I was working at the Fox station out there because this this storm occurred in late September, early October of 2016. And so I was in Cincinnati at the time.
Gosh. And I guess before we we wrap up this episode kind of go around the horn and talk about our most memorable hurricane experience. I know from again, they start to wind together after a while, you know, and I know some people that were, you know, directly impacted by storms. And I've covered, you know, so many, but most of them indirectly.
So I can't you know, it was hard to imagine, like if this had been a category four, Category five, I mean, it was already just tremendously windy. But I think ultimately, despite the wind damage, the amount of tree damage was done in roof damage. My apartment had shingles removed. There was actually a leak that developed in my apartment.
That was that was good. Good for me. Yeah. So for me, it goes back the first time I was in was a first verse incarnation of Hurricane Charley in August of 1986. We were scheduled to go on vacation to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and and we knew it was coming. Of course, this is 86. All you had was television and radio, and we didn't even have the Weather Channel at my house in Richmond.
But, you know, all of our big flooding events here in Virginia are tropical systems. If you go back to Agnes Haight and Hazel, Hazel was big in the fifties, but Agnes Camille left over from one in 85. It's all about the water here now. Yeah. And for me, there's not one weather event I can think of that puts sometimes tears in my eyes.
I was a senior then and I was in charge of our weather TV weather department weather watcher program at the time and, you know, planning coverage for that.
You know, we you know, in our circles here in Jersey, you know, our realistic worst case scenario is a Cat three three that really runs up the coast and provides a you know, it might not be as long lasting as Sandy, but a more powerful strike to the shore. So that's it for me. That's Sandy without a doubt.
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