Analysis: A new national poll answers a critical question: who is the second choice of Democratic voters?
Determining the eventual winner of the Democratic primary contest, should one wish to do so, depends on tracking a number of factors. There’s national polling, giving a sense of who leads and who trails overall among Democratic voters. There’s polling in primary states, of course, though those polls tend to shift around a lot once voting starts.choice.
Mapping out Quinnipiac’s data on second choices, we see how the liberal-moderate split plays out. Sanders and Warren see much of their support go to each other as a second pick. Former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg’s support goes largely to Biden and former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg. Much of Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s support goes to Buttigieg as well.When we compare support by demographic groups among the candidates, we see those same groupings.
Quinnipiac has an answer for that, too. Most Democratic voters say they might change their minds, shifting their support to another candidate. But those responses aren’t even: Most Sanders backers say their minds are made up, while most Warren supporters say they might shift.
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