![[ANALYSIS] Coronavirus cases in PH could reach 26,000 by end-March if random spread not contained](https://i.headtopics.com/images/2020/3/18/rapplerdotcom/analysis-coronavirus-cases-in-ph-could-reach-26-000-by-end-march-if-random-spread-not-contained-1240065670353739778.webp)
'We're worried because this number is not something we believe our healthcare system can handle. The data has spoken, and we can only hope it’s lying.' COVID19PH Read this ThoughtLeaders piece here:
. By some forces of mathematics, this can be expressed as an exponential: y=a exp where the rate r=exp , and the doubling time is given by tAs seen in all countries, for 10-14 days, such exponential trend has been preserved. What differentiates South Korea and Singapore from other countries was how the exponential trajectory was stunted in less than two weeks due to widespread virus testing and social distancing measures that were implemented early.
This is because the age bracket 40 years and below only has ~0.2% mortality rate, while for 60 and above, the mortality rate shoots up to within 10%. This is a ~50 fold increase. With such assumption, a first order approximation of the underreported cases in the Philippines is: Age below 55 / Age above 55 . Looking at the Philippine Statistics Authority data, this is about 90% / 10% or 9x. The assumption here is we are not detecting 9x of the infected because they are not going to hospitals for check-ups.Of course, we could be wrong, and the good thing is that in the next few days we will be able to validate or invalidate our results.
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