On the first run of Ohio’s new legislative redistricting system, as few as one in four races are likely to produce competitive general elections, a new analysis shows.
The following article was originally published in the Ohio Capital Journal and published on News5Cleveland.com under a content-sharing agreement.All 99 seats in the Ohio House and 17 of 33 Senate seats are up this year. Of those 116 races, just 30 will take place in districts that offer either party less than a five-point advantage, using a partisan index score calculated from the districts’ recent voting patterns.
However, analyzing the index across 116 races shows just how few are likely to offer any serious contests. For instance: Along with creating a revamped process for drawing districts , the new constitutional language says the officials drawing districts"shall attempt" not to favor or disfavor either party. Similarly, they “shall attempt” to create districts that"correspond closely to the statewide preferences" of Ohio voters over the last 10 years of elections.
The Ohio Supreme Court in April ruled the map in effect this cycle unconstitutional — its fourth time overruling a redistricting proposal approved only by Republicans.
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