Why low borrowing costs will be good for the British government’s finances
has changed since Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, unveiled his budget in March. Britain’s economy looks set to experience an unprecedentedly rapid and deep recession. What is more, the government, through actions such as the furlough scheme to support employment, is choosing to bear an unusually large share of the initial costs. The result will be much higher government debt than previously anticipated.
There is now so much uncertainty that the official government forecasters—the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England—have declined to issue their usual forecasts, instead presenting what they call “scenarios”. More detailed modelling by the Resolution Foundation shows what may be to come.
Low borrowing costs are good news for the government’s finances. In the Resolution Foundation’s scenario, interest costs will take up a smaller share of tax revenues by 2024 than was expected at the budget. Indeed, they will be lower than at any point in Britain’s post-war history. And not only will new borrowing attract a lower rate, but as existing debt is refinanced the cost of servicing it will fall, too. More debt leaves the government vulnerable if interest rates return to higher levels.
This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline "Not so burdensome"
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