NASA data reveals a 3.1% chance of the asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032, making it the most significant threat recorded by modern forecasting. While experts emphasize there's no immediate cause for alarm, the global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation. The James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe 2024 YR4 next month.
NASA data released on Tuesday (Feb 18) indicates a 3.1 percent chance of the asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032, making it the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting. While the odds are rising, experts stress there's no need for alarm. The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation, with the James Webb Space Telescope set to observe 2024 YR4 next month.
\Astronomers estimate the asteroid's size to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, based on its brightness. Analysis suggests a typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability crossed one percent. Since then, the figure has fluctuated but generally trended upward. NASA's latest calculations put the impact probability at 3.1 percent, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032. This translates to odds of one in 32 - roughly the same as correctly guessing the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses. \The last time an asteroid of greater than 30 meters posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, which briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029 - a possibility later ruled out by further observations. Surpassing this threshold is historic, said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defense office, which puts the risk slightly lower at 2.8 percent. \'It's a very, very rare event,' he told AFP, but added, 'This is not a crisis at this point in time. This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city.' Data from the Webb telescope - the most powerful space observatory - will be key in better understanding its trajectory, said the Planetary Society's Betts. 'Webb is able to see things that are very, very dim,' he said - which is crucial because the asteroid's orbit is currently taking it out towards Jupiter, and its next close approach will not be until 2028. If the risk rises above 10 percent, IAWN would issue a formal warning, leading to a recommendation for all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness, explained Moissl. \Unlike the 10km-wide asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, 2024 YR4 is classified as a city killer - not a global catastrophe, but still capable of causing significant destruction. Its potential devastation comes less from its size and more from its velocity, which could be nearly 64,000 kmh if it hits. If it enters Earth's atmosphere, the most likely scenario is an airburst, meaning it would explode midair with a force of approximately eight megatons of TNT - more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. But an impact crater cannot be ruled out if the size is closer to the higher end of estimates, said Betts. The potential impact corridor spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia - though Moissl emphasized it is far too early for people to consider drastic decisions like relocation. \Even in the unlikely event that the probability does keep rising up to 100 percent, 'we are not defenceless,' Moissl emphasized. Only one planetary defense strategy has been successfully tested on an actual asteroid. In 2022, NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) deliberately crashed a spacecraft into the 160m-wide Dimorphos asteroid, successfully altering its orbit around a larger space rock. An advantage of this plan is that we could hit the 2024 YR4 asteroid with multiple spacecraft, observing how each one changed its trajectory, Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society, told AFP. 'You have to take care not to overdo it,' Moissl warned. If the spacecraft partially destroyed the asteroid, it could send bits flying off that still head towards Earth, he said. If this kind of mishap changed the eventual impact site on Earth - for example, 'from Paris to Moscow' - that would likely cause major problems back home, Betts added. \A separate idea called a gravity tractor involves a large spacecraft flying up near the asteroid and - without touching it - using its gravitational pull to tug it away from Earth. Another non-contact plan would put a spacecraft near the asteroid armed with thrusters that would exert a constant stream of ions to shove the asteroid off course, Moissl said
Asteroid 2024 YR4 NASA Impact Probability James Webb Space Telescope Planetary Defense Asteroid Threat
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