The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least twice more in coming months, with the risk they go higher still, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who see no cut by year-end.
That would mean a peak of 5.00%-5.25%, 25 basis points higher than what the majority had been predicting since November. All 37 who replied to an extra question said the bigger risk was the fed funds rate would peak even higher.
The most recent U.S. inflation data is due to be released later on Tuesday and could change the rate outlook a bit more. The poll also found a median 60% probability of recession in the coming year, upgraded slightly from 56% in January."Cutting shortly after an unsettling inflation surge with a still-tight labor market would risk reputational damage if inflation flared back up," said David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs.
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