Three years after the onset of a devastating pandemic, a year and a half into a still-developing inflation surge and many months into predictions of recessions that continue to miss the mark, U.S. and global economies are a confounding mix
Unusually warm weather and lower energy prices have helped. So has unexpectedly strong consumer spending and, for the world outlook, the reopening of China's economy from strict COVID lockdowns.
"How much are consumers willing to spend? Out of their own income, their wealth ... their credit cards? Maybe we are approaching the point where consumers are tapped out." It's an iffy proposition. Indeed, an Atlanta Fed model currently sees first-quarter U.S. GDP growth, for one, at a robust 2.5%. Benson Durham, head of global asset allocation at Piper Sandler, said his analysis suggests the recent rise in bond yields that more closely aligned markets with the Fed may not be such good news because it seems to have been driven by expectations for higher inflation.
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