Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats are on track to win an election in Germany's smallest state, the city of Bremen, on Sunday, a vote that could give a modest lift to the centre-left party that has slumped to around 20% in national opinion polls.
Bremen is not deemed a political bellwether for other parts of Germany given its specific characteristics as an industrial port city and its small size - it has just 570,000 inhabitants. By contrast, the states of Bavaria and Hesse, which will hold elections in October, together comprise nearly a quarter of Germany's population of 83.2 million.
The conservatives are polling in second place on 26-28%, meaning the SPD could win back its pole position in its traditional stronghold. But the Left party is on fragile ground at a national level due to internal strife which could have regional repercussions.
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