Another day, another headline about the Republican 2024 presidential field being “frozen” because only former President Donald Trump has announced and former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) is expected to announce soon.
All of these stories are extremely premature. Yes, the Democrats had 11 candidates already declared by this time in 2019, including Andrew Yang, Sen. Elizabeth Warren , Julian Castro, Sen. Cory Booker , and Vice President Kamala Harris, but none of them won. President Joe Biden did. And he didn’t declare until April 25, and even that was on the early side compared to historical norms.When President Ronald Reagan won in 1980, he didn’t announce his candidacy until Nov. 13, 1979.
It’s only February. There is still tons of time, about 11 months, for candidates to build an organization and compete before the first Republican contests are held in New Hampshire and Iowa next January. And just to blow your mind, in the 1968 campaign, then-Sen. Robert Kennedy didn’t even announce his candidacy until March 16, 1968!
Yes, presidential politics is different today than it was in 1968, but even compared to the 2016, 2000, 1988, and 1980 elections, it is still far too early to expect most candidates to have announced already. Only by 2020 Democratic standards is the 2024 field slow to develop. And even then, the winning candidate, Biden, was one of the last candidates to announce.
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