The Chinese economy will slowly recover from its first quarterly contraction since current records began, economists predicted in a Reuters poll, but they warned of a likely recession if conditions worsen again from the global coronavirus pandemic.
A crane is seen at a construction site in Beijing, following an outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease , China April 17, 2020. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins
The Chinese authorities have also allowed factories to resume production and reopen businesses, leading to a recovery in manufacturing activity CNPMIB=ECI in March for the first time this year in the world’s second-largest economy. The contraction just recently reported for Q1 was only a few tenths of a percentage point lower than the median 6.5% shrinkage forecast in a Reuters poll published on April 14.
“Overall, GDP probably will contract this year, though the authorities likely will print a positive number. We are unlikely ever to go back to the days of wrangling over ‘6.1%’ or ‘6.2%’,” said Freya Beamish, London-based chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, who along with seven other respondents predicts a recession.
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