China's demand for petrol is likely to peak as early as next year as electric vehicle sales soar, several analysts say, bringing forward an energy transition milestone for the world's biggest polluter and a headache for global refiners.
The International Energy Agency and consultancy Rystad Energy have brought forward forecasts of China's peak gasoline demand by about a year to 2024, while Chinese state majors PetroChina and SinopecThe earlier halt in gasoline demand growth in the world's No. 2 oil consumer will push Chinese refiners to ramp up exports of the motor fuel to Asia and spur them to make more naphtha, diesel and jet fuel, crimping refining margins in the region.
"We are seeing a shift towards higher middle distillates yields like jet fuel and gasoil ... also seeing rebalancing of naphtha and gasoline into petrochemicals feedstocks."In January to May, EV's share in the world's largest car market jumped to 28%, up from 9% in the same period of 2021, while the share for petrol cars shrank to 72% from 91%, data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed.
The research arm of China's state refiner CNPC expects gasoline demand to peak in 2025, citing accelerating sales of EVs, and sees gasoline demand shrinking 2.3% annually between 2026 and 2030.
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