At the 23rd Shangri‑La Dialogue in Singapore, China sent a modest team of PLA scholars instead of Defence Minister Dong Jun, prompting analysis of Beijing's strategic calculus and its impact on US‑China military talks.
Singapore hosted the 23rd Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's leading defence forum, under a cloud of speculation about China's participation. For the second consecutive year, Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun was absent, leaving the summit without the usual high‑level Chinese presence.
Instead Beijing sent a modest delegation of People's Liberation Army scholars and analysts, a clear downgrade from the senior ministerial delegations that have attended since 2007. The customary keynote speech by a Chinese defence official, which normally outlines Beijing's strategic doctrine and view of global security challenges, was omitted from the programme, echoing the pattern of 2025 when the minister also did not attend.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth highlighted the gap during his opening address on Saturday, expressing a wish that his Chinese counterpart could be present to engage directly on matters ranging from maritime incidents to aerial encounters that are often interpreted in divergent ways. Hegseth stressed that constructive strategic stability between Washington and Beijing depends on mutual respect, clear recognition of each other's red lines, and robust communication channels.
He added that the United States sees itself as a stabilising force in the Indo‑Pacific, aiming to preserve equilibrium rather than provoke disruption. The low‑profile Chinese delegation, led by senior PLA researchers such as Senior Colonel Zhao Weibin of the Academy of Military Science, fielded questions about the future shape of US‑China military relations.
Zhao asked Hegseth what a "constructive strategic stability" framework would look like, to which the US secretary replied that it would involve consistent dialogue, confidence‑building measures and a shared commitment to avoiding miscalculation. Although Dong Jun did meet Hegseth earlier in the month during President Donald Trump's visit to China, the summit itself offered no direct ministerial engagement.
Retired PLA Colonel Zhou Bo, a member of the Chinese delegation, downplayed the significance of the minister's absence, noting that academic delegations have represented China before and that the current team, while less senior, still reflects Beijing's interest in the dialogue. Nevertheless, analysts in Singapore and beyond argue that the scaled‑back representation signals a deliberate effort by Beijing to sidestep contentious topics such as Taiwan, the impact of recent anti‑corruption purges on combat readiness, and broader questions about China's regional ambitions.
Local diplomats and scholars offered further context. Chong Ja Ian, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, suggested that the researcher‑heavy delegation may be intended to avoid tough questions that a defence minister would be compelled to answer. Veteran Singapore foreign service officer Bilahari Kausikan reminded observers that the primary purpose of the Shangri‑La Dialogue is to anchor US engagement in Southeast Asia and ensure that the US defence chief visits the region regularly.
While the presence of China's defence minister would be welcome, Kausikan argued, it is not essential to the summit's core mission. The event, which was suspended in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic, resumed in 2022 with renewed vigor, and has traditionally featured high‑level participation from major powers.
The 2024 summit thus marked a notable shift in the diplomatic choreography of regional security, highlighting both the continuing importance of US‑China military dialogue and the growing uncertainty surrounding Beijing's willingness to engage at the highest levels.
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