China's status as South-east Asia's preferred superpower in a new survey is likely to be short-lived, according to analysts. The annual survey of policymakers, journalists, businessmen, and analysts in Asean nations showed that they would prefer China over the US by a narrow margin. However, the findings point to a reversal of trends seen in the last four surveys.
China Coast Guard vessels firing water cannon at a Philippine vessel on a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal on May 4.
Analysts told The Straits Times that the findings are not too surprising and do not necessarily mean the region is uncritically closer to China. Since Malaysian and Bruneian elites were already more pro-China, the real shift here is the big swing in Indonesia, he pointed out. It is a survey of elites, and a tiny fraction of elites, in the cases of Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar, Mr Poling said.
Likewise, Mr Blake Berger, associate director at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, said he wouldn’t read too much into the close 50-50 split in preference. Pointedly, China was seen as the fourth-most trusted partner, garnering 24.8 per cent support, while the US got 42.4 per cent of the vote, coming behind Japan, the country named as the region’s most trusted partner.
Since 2020, Asean and China have been each other’s largest trading partners, amid the signing of notable agreements like the Asean-China Free Trade Agreement and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
China South-East Asia Superpower Survey US Asean Analysts
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