Both countries’ efforts to reinforce their claims in the South China Sea will likely escalate tensions in the medium and long term, says this academic.
Chinese Maritime Militia vessels are pictured near the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea , on Mar 5, 2024. in July to enable the continuation of Philippine resupply missions at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea . The confrontation reached new heights in June when Manila accused Chinese forces of intercepting Philippine boats, seizing supplies and injuring a Filipino sailor.
On the contrary, the situation at Second Thomas Shoal can be expected to further deteriorate over time given the deep-seated mistrust between China and the Philippines. Both parties are already disputing the deal’s interpretation, which does not augur well for its durability. This builds on a 2021 law permitting the Chinese coast guard to fire on any vessel intruding into its waters. China continues to ignore the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling which dismissed Beijing’s claims to much of the South China Sea.
The second major trend is the ongoing buildup of military capabilities to counter the other party. China continues to maintain a sizable and permanent military presence in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone through its military outposts on man-made islands, extending its military power across the South China Sea.
The latter is especially significant. The Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan allows Japanese forces deployed in the Philippines to participate in expanded exercises and potentially deal with humanitarian and disaster relief. The agreement has drawn criticism from Beijing, fearing that it is part of a broader regional trend of defence agreements targeted against China.
These legal and military trends reflect a deep mistrust between China and the Philippines. Both countries’ efforts to reinforce their claims through assertive diplomatic and political strategies will likely lay the foundation for a greater escalation of tensions in the medium and long term.
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