Part of the largest untapped natural gas deposit lies within China’s claimed “nine-dash line”, fuelling fears it may try to intervene in Indonesia’s exploration and extraction, says this writer.
could not have come at a better time, with global energy supply increasingly under threat due to intensifying great power competition and a tightening monetary regime.
The location of the project is also highly contentious. The Tuna block lies near Indonesia’s Natuna Islands, within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone. China has deployed the same tactic towards other Southeast Asian claimants in the South China Sea. In September to October last year, China sent a fleet of support vessels and a militia ship to impede oil exploration in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone. In June, Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels prevented Philippine troops from reaching their garrison in the Philippine-occupied Thomas Shoal.
Despite decades-long success in increasing pressure on other claimant states in the South China Sea, recent developments seem to have turned the tide against China. Claimant states are beefing up their defences. There are also domestic pressures brewing within China. The ongoing property crunch and demographic ageing have significantly weakened domestic growth, leading to greater Chinese dependency on global markets. Adding to this is the growing risk of confrontation with the United States, coupled with looming global economic and possible financial crises.
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