Ukraine and Russia are strong enough to frustrate each other over territorial gains but not enough to achieve military victory, says international security expert Stefan Wolff.
to the day Russian President Vladimir Putin gave orders to launch what he referred to as a “special military operation” against Ukraine., celebrating the day its parliament declared separation from the Soviet Union in 1991, months before the USSR officially collapsed.
Since then, Russia has managed to occupy all of the Luhansk region but has made comparatively little progress in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kharkiv in the north and on the western bank of the Dnipro river in the southern Kherson region have made some progress since the end of May.
Turkish mediation, however, has continued to remain important. In end-July, it successfully brokered a deal to restartUkraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear site, Europe's largest atomic power complex, has been under Russian control since the early days of the invasion. For one, both sides have not changed their public positions on negotiations: Ukraine wants Russia to first withdraw its troops, while Russia has rejected calls for the two presidents to meet and its permanent representative to the UN institutions in Geneva, Gennady Gatilov, has completely ruled out the possibility of a peace deal with Ukraine.Meanwhile, both sides are strengthening their defences in areas where they appear vulnerable.
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