Massive shipments of sophisticated Western arms are intended to avoid a long stalemate and bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the table, says Hal Brands for Bloomberg Opinion.
, uncertainty about its course is greater than ever. For the first six months, Russia had the initiative: The major questions were when, where and with what success it would attack. Over the following five months, Ukraine had the initiative, and analysts tried to divine the location and prospects of its counteroffensives.and who has the edge. Both sides may be preparing new offensives.
Washington’s goal is a Ukraine that is militarily defensible, politically independent and economically viable; this doesn’t necessarily include retaking difficult areas such as the eastern Donbas or Crimea.Second, the US and its allies are sending Ukraine more sophisticated weapons: Armoured personnel carriers, Patriot missiles, and tanks that can bust through layered Russian defences.
Perhaps. But Putin has bluffed about escalation so many times that his threats are losing credibility. And precisely because Crimea is so important to Putin, threatening him with its loss may be the best way to force him to negotiate seriously.Although these various policy shifts seem to cut in opposite directions, there is a unifying logic.
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