Russia and China are continental powers upending a maritime order, says Marc Champion for Bloomberg Opinion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is welcomed by Chinese President Xi Jinping during a ceremony at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China on Oct 17, 2023. , just three weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, was a moment of hubris - two supremely confident leaders marking their bid to shake up a world organised by and for the United States and its allies.
The difference is big. Maritime nations ultimately are about trade, and that in turn tends to attract allies and encourage the development of international rules because they enable wealth creation. The territorial wars that a continental world order based on spheres of influence implies are, by contrast, huge destroyers of wealth and value.
Historically, continental powers also are prone to destabilising neighbours if they can, either to later absorb them or ensure that no powerful threat emerges on their doorstep. That habitual, sometimes justified and, at other times, self-fulfilling paranoia also weakens their most likely trading partners.
These priorities are non-negotiable for Putin and Xi, and therefore dangerous. They already led to one war and could produce a second. But in terms of a zero-sum geopolitical confrontation with the US, trouble in Ukraine or the Middle East is a win for China. Both draw on US resources and attention. Both upset the status quo. As the US becomes embroiled in Israel’s revenge against Hamas in Gaza, its alliances with the Gulf Arab states will be strained, creating opportunities for Xi.
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