Democrat and Republican strategists weigh in on whether polls in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia and Minnesota could be wrong in predicting Dem candidates winning in November
Fox News correspondent Rich Edson has the latest on the race between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz on 'Special Report.'An eventful summer of abortion fights, bruising GOP primaries and a rise in President Biden's approval rating have turned near certainty that Republicans retake the Senate into a doubtful prospect.across the U.S. in recent weeks have shown GOP candidates behind their Democratic rivals in public opinion polls, with many citing the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe v.
Democratic Senate candidates Rep. Tim Ryan, Sen Raphael Warnock, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes"It’s quite possible the polls are off again because Democrats are performing better than we might expect given past elections in the same places they were off in 2020 and 2016. But more – pollsters haven’t changed the way the poll because AAPOR couldn’t agree what went wrong in 2020 and thus didn’t significantly update their methodologies.
"Don't fall for it. Voters don't ask, ‘Who can win?’; they ask, ‘Who can lead?’ These candidates must ignore the critics and the phony polls, velcro Democrat candidates to Joe Biden and his failing and flailing, and give voters a reason to believe, trust and support them.""The polls were wrong because they underestimated the proportion of working-class voters. And Trump brought out tens of millions of new, first-time voters.
"That said, Democrats must presume that they polls are wrong and that they are doing much worse than the polls would indicate. Running as if you’re behind is the only proper course in elections that are likely to be very close.
"What does a poll of likely voters even mean? Is it a random sample of adults who SAY they are likely to vote, or is a poll taken from a list of people who actually vote in midterms and have the vote history to show their participation? These are important questions because they can determine whether a poll is skewed – or just plain wrong. But oftentimes, this information is hard or impossible to assess.
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