The U.S. yield curve inverted further today — here’s what 5 Wall Street experts say investors should watch.
A 10-year rate below the 2-year yield is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, marking an unusual phenomenon as bondholders receive better compensation in the short term. Meanwhile, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield fell to a new record low on Wednesday.However, MRB Partners strategist Prajakta Bhide thinks recessionary fears may be overblown.
"Even if the inverted yield curve captures investor's uncertainty about worsening global growth ... a balanced perspective would still suggest that the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are no higher than 20%," Bhide added. The White House is scheduled to impose the first stage of U.S. tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods on Sunday. China is set to respond with tariffs on U.S. products on the same day.
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