How does Omicron compare to Delta in terms of transmission and reinfection? Here’s what the early data tell us
South Africa is not in lockdown, which may partly explain Omicron’s rapid spread. However, prior variants benefited from encountering lots of people with no immunity. By now, most South Africans have either recovered from covid or been vaccinated.
The Delta variant became dominant mainly because of its transmissibility. In contrast, Omicron seems to have advantages in both areas. Anecdotal evidence for its greater contagiousness is mounting: super-spreader events after which 35-78% of people tested positive have occurred in Norway, Denmark, Spain and Britain.
Data on virulence are more heartening. In hospitals Omicron has not yet shown a pattern of worse disease in older people. Among covid-positive hospital patients in the South African city of Tshwane, 70% of those aged 50-69 and 90% of over-80s had severe cases during the Delta wave. This share is now around 30% for all ages.
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