The euro neared a one-year high on Thursday, as Europe's economy contrasted with U.S. banking contagion risks, debt ceiling standoff and a potential recession.
continued slump, or the continued wrangling over an extension to the U.S. debt ceiling.
"The resilient euro zone economy alongside underlying inflation that is still going up and not down can see the ECB maintain their hawkish stance, supporting EUR," Kristina Clifton, senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a client note. At the same time, U.S. inflation is showing a stubborn disconnect with growth, keeping pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee to tighten policy further, Clifton said.Traders currently lay 80% odds on another quarter-point hike on May 3, but that is seen as the likely peak, with as many as two quarter-point cuts priced in for the end of the year.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore also sees risks skewed to the downside for the euro against the dollar. As long as the pair is below monthly resistance at around 1.1075, "EUR/USD remains vulnerable to a pullback to 1.0800," he wrote in a report.
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