There's something missing in evaluating recent trades for wide receivers, including Dallas' deal for Jonathan Mingo. Has the NFL changed its ways?
The Cowboys traded a fourth-round pick for receiver Jonathan Mingo, who had 55 catches in 24 games for the Panthers. , with episodes released once a week. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland. Follow him on Twitter here:Jonathan MingoThere's something missing in evaluating these trades, and it helps bridge a lot of the gap between how the public perceives these players and how NFL teams are actually evaluating their value in potential trades.
Are there reasons to believe Mingo might be a better prospect than what we've seen so far? Yes, afew. He was drafted No. 39 overall in 2023, ahead of fellow second-round picksat wide receiver. It's fair to say that was a bad decision by Carolina. Consensus mock drafts had Mingo, though, as the, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. had Mingo going to the Cowboys, ironically, at No. 58.
Of course, the Cowboys paid a fourth-round pick to acquire Mingo, and that also has surplus value by providing a team a chance to acquire a player at any position at a below-market value rate. After factoring in the seventh-round selection, it looks like they sent what currently projects to be the, it's possible to estimate what those picks are worth. Baldwin's model projects that swapping those picks costs the Cowboys 0.94% of the salary cap per season in terms of surplus value.
We can take the players each team in the league drafted in the second, third and fourth rounds of the draft from 2002 to 2019 and measure what they did over their first five seasons by using's Approximate Value metric, which gives us a general overview of their impact on winning games.
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