Coronavirus death toll is now projected to be closer to 60,000 – much lower than previous models had forecast. But five states could see their numbers climbs by thousands.
Senior White House adviser Anthony Fauci said Thursday the death toll from the coronavirus could be closer to 60,000 Americans, assuming full social distancing, rather than the previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.
But the model also shows five states with projected increases: Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Dakota and Rhode Island. Changes to the University of Washington’s model reflect “a massive infusion of new data,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the school’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The University began its projections on March 26. To date, its model is the most comprehensive state-by-state rundown of the number of resources each state will need to combat the coronavirus.
But Massachusetts and Connecticut are both projected to see thousands more deaths than originally projected. “We are making those forecasts based on the effects of social distancing and other mitigation efforts we saw in other countries—especially China,” Abraham Flaxman, a member of the team, told the science magazine Nautilus. “We are assuming it will happen here in much the same way.”
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