Only two things will really matter when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell strides to the podium for his press conference on Wednesday after ...
NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO: Only two things will really matter when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell strides to the podium for his press conference on Wednesday after the end of the U.S. central bank's latest two-day policy meeting: Dots and bonds.
"It's going to be new information for the market to trade whether it's the Fed's intention or not," said Ben Jeffery, a strategist at BMO Capital Markets. Making Powell's task even harder: A jumble of economic data, including a sharp slowdown in jobs growth last month that was accompanied by rising wages.Uncertainty on the outlook for the world economy and global trade as well as a sharp U.S. growth slowdown expected by a range of forecasters mean that markets are on a hair trigger for signals from the Fed.In January, the Fed pivoted from hiking rates quarterly to pledging patience before making more moves.
"Patience is basically saying we're not going to give a lot of guidance to what we're expecting down the road because there's enough uncertainty that we just have to see how things evolve," Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren told a National Association of Corporate Directors chapter on March 5. So far, the Fed's on-guard and guarded communication has given markets new confidence. A gauge of swings expected in U.S. government bond prices over three months hit its lowest levels in 17 years. Stock markets have reacted as well, with the S&P 500 index up more than 12 percent this year.
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