Forecasting should shift to scenario planning at times of economic uncertainty

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Forecasting should shift to scenario planning at times of economic uncertainty
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By considering multiple scenarios and making informed predictions, businesses can be better prepared to adapt and thrive in an ever-changing market and drive value for all stakeholders

In the most recent economic forecast from the EU Commission, the welcome headline news is that the EU region is predicted to avoid recession for the coming year. However, headwinds persist, and while the forecast for Ireland is generally positive in comparison to our EU counterparts, the report highlights that the economic outlook for Ireland remains subject to uncertainty due to trade developments related to the implementation of the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland.

“What remains one of the key barriers where there are early signs of stress is the reluctance to seek external advice from specialised turnaround and advisory firms,” said Degnan, adding that negative sentiment associated with restructuring following the economic crash more than a decade ago is still high.

Prior to the pandemic, boards and management were relatively comfortable in forecasting their business performance in a normal operating environment. Forecasts or scenario tests “We have seen that by preparing robust scenarios, based on current market dynamics, our clients have been able to make informed and early decisions, which include early engagement with wider stakeholders such as shareholders, lenders and operational stakeholders,” advised Degnan.

Both scenario planning and forecasts are important tools, and many businesses use a combination of the two to create a more comprehensive view of the future. . Act early By identifying potential performance issues within the business early on, boards and management teams can provide themselves with more options to deal with any underlying problems identified – especially as directors and management teams often leave it too late to seek professional advice, thereby limiting the restructuring options available.

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