The odds of a global recession are about 50%, Citi economists said in a new analyst note, warning there is a 'real and present danger' of a downturn.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, as he presents the Monetary Policy Report to the committee on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, June 22, 2022, in Washington.
Fed policymakers in June approved a 75-basis point interest rate hike — the first since 1994 — pushing the federal funds target range to 1.5% to 1.75%. Another hike of that magnitude is on the table in July amid signs of stubbornly high inflation, Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters after the meeting, prompting investors to reassess the economic outlook.
Officials also laid out an aggressive path of rate increases for the remainder of the year. New economic projections released after the two-day meeting showed policymakers expect interest rates to hit 3.4% by the end of 2022, which would be the highest level since 2008. Hiking interest rates tends to create higher rates on consumer and business loans, which slows the economy by forcing employers to cut back on spending. Mortgage rates are already approaching 6%, the highest since 2008, while some credit card issuers have ratcheted up their rates to 20%.
A worker grinds a weld on a safe that is being manufactured at Liberty Safe Company on March 22, 2022 in Payson, Utah.
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