Having surpassed the key $1,600 mark, gold prices were flirting with a seven-year high on Wednesday, as investors continue to shore up their positions amid the coronavirus outbreak.
James Gerrish, portfolio manager at Sydney-based Shaw and Partners, attributed the gold rally to strategic portfolio hedging rather than a direct response to the virus.
"It is probably not benefitting from actual Chinese demand at this point in time, so I think it is more about portfolio positioning."In a note Wednesday, Citi upgraded its six-to-12 month price target for gold to $1,700/oz and upgraded its 2020 base case average gold price forecast from $1,575 to $1,640/oz.
"The set-up in gold options markets and call skew is reminiscent of 2010/2011, when gold last traded to $1,800-1,900/oz," the note said. While acknowledging that a slowdown in physical demand in Asia, particularly jewelry sales, provides some downside risk, Citi analysts suggested that this would likely be offset by investor inflows and central bank gold buying.Stocks in Europe and the U.S. continue to eke out fresh record highs, but Gerrish suggested that the composition of equity market gains could render them fragile.
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