People are worried about crime ahead of the 2024 elections, but few have an accurate sense of the problem.
Los Angeles, which has the fifth lowest homicide rate this year among the 16 cities in the survey, was ranked as the third most dangerous. Forty-one percent of Americans described L.A. as a safe place to live or visit, the highest number Gallup has ever recorded for the city.
“People are bad at perceiving crime rates,” said Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst and consultant who runsAssessing cities’ safety is tricky. Homicide rates spiked across the country during the pandemic and have since fallen, but are still likely to be higher this year than they were in 2019. Auto theft is, but some cities are experiencing a small decline. And rates for almost all types of crime have fallen since the early 1990s.
Asher called the Gallup survey “the bane of my existence.” The results made so little sense to him that he abandoned a column he tried to write on the subject. Although he tracks crime closely, he says it is nearly impossible to fully characterize national trends on safety in real time, in part because FBI data on violent crime can lag years behind and because it is difficult to define which offenses detract most from community security.
Republicans have painted Democratic-run cities as dens of crime and disorder since at least the 1960s.last month talked over one another to decry “hollowed-out cities,” a “national identity crisis” and Democrats who have been “talking about defunding the police for the last five years.”
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