A second dismal payrolls report could take investors by surprise.
With bullish investors pinning their hopes on a rebound in U.S. and global growth, few appear prepared for a second dismal jobs report in a row.
“If we get anything remotely close to the 20,000 gain in February, that would be a very big concern to markets, and it would suggest the slowdown is deeper and more persistent than expected,” Kathy Bostjancic, director of U.S. macro investor services at Oxford Economics, told MarketWatch.Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast the U.S. economy to add 179,000 jobs in March, jumping back from a 20,000 reading in February. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.
The ADP private payrolls data is not closely correlated with Friday’s official jobs report, though significant economic ‘misses’ in the ADP data does hold more predictive power for the nonfarm payrolls numbers, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. Stock-market investors appear to be looking past the economic pessimism signaled by the bond market, with many looking for economic activity in U.S. and China to rev up later in the second quarter. Those hopes gained ground following a rebound in manufacturing purchasing managers indexes in the U.S. and China, sending stocks and bond yield higher for the week.
To be sure, many market participants are already expecting a steady downtrend in payrolls in line with the aging expansion of the U.S. economy. With unemployment rates near multidecade lows, the chance of the U.S. economy posting a 200,000-plus job report appears dim, they said.
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