Singapore's Meteorological Service forecasts over 80% probability of El Nino in 2026, explaining its impacts on regional weather including hotter and drier conditions.
The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) has announced a more than 80 percent probability of an El Nino event developing in 2026, based on key indicators such as warmer subsurface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.
This follows the most recent El Nino which occurred between 2023 and early 2024, after which conditions shifted to La Nina, bringing wetter weather to the region through much of 2024 and into early 2026. El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that significantly influences global weather.
El Nino, the warm phase, typically brings hotter and drier conditions to Southeast Asia, while La Nina, the cold phase, tends to bring cooler and wetter conditions. The ENSO cycle also includes a neutral state between these extremes. El Nino events typically occur every three to five years and can disrupt weather patterns worldwide. During normal conditions, trade winds blow warm water from South America toward Asia.
In an El Nino event, these trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to shift back eastward toward the Americas, reducing rainfall in the western Pacific and increasing it in the central and eastern Pacific. Conversely, La Nina strengthens trade winds, pushing more warm water toward Asia and enhancing rainfall in the western Pacific.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a similar phenomenon in the equatorial Indian Ocean, with positive IOD events often bringing drier and warmer conditions to southern Southeast Asia. The MSS noted that Singapore's driest year on record, in 1997, coincided with both a strong El Nino and a positive IOD. Singapore monitors ENSO using the Nino3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific.
An El Nino is declared when the index exceeds 0.65 degrees Celsius above normal, while La Nina is triggered when it falls below minus 0.65 degrees Celsius. During an El Nino, Singapore typically experiences hotter and drier weather, especially during the southwest monsoon season from June to September.
For example, the strong El Nino of 2015-2016 led to a 35 percent drop in rainfall from June to September 2015 compared to the long-term average. Additionally, temperatures are highest during the decay phase of El Nino, typically from March to May of the following year. In 2016, the average temperature from March to May was 29.2 degrees Celsius, 1 degree above the long-term average, making it the second-warmest such period on record.
The MSS continues to monitor these climate phenomena to provide timely advisories for Singapore and the region
El Nino La Nina ENSO Indian Ocean Dipole Singapore Weather
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