Prof Allan Lichtman has correctly called all but one election since 1984.
BETHESDA, United States - Forget the polls, ditch the data and stop sending journalists to swing-state diners to interview undecided voters: historian Allan Lichtman already knows who is going to win the US presidential election.He was speaking at his home in the leafy Washington suburb of Bethesda shortly after unveiling his much-discussed, once-every-four-years White House prediction, based on what he calls the “13 keys” method.
If six or more of these “keys” are false, the election will go to the out-of-power challenger – in this case, Republican candidate Donald Trump. But Prof Lichtman rules that she does not qualify for another of the keys, which is being a charismatic, “once-in-a-generation” candidate in the style of Ronald Reagan or Franklin Roosevelt.For example, the Biden administration’s massive environment and infrastructure legislation ticks the box for the key requiring a “major policy change” by the current White House.Do the maths and it turns out that only three keys are falling for Trump.
Yet, a ceasefire would mean the Democrats actually delivered a policy achievement, Prof Lichtman argues, and deliver one of the keys on foreign policy. Amid the “noise” of national political punditry, Prof Lichtman argues, presidential elections are a simple “vote up or down on the strength and performance of the White House party”,
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