This year's midterm elections brought surprises and some counterintuitive lessons.
One of the few absolute constants of American politics is that every election cycle brings its own surprises. Which, like good drama, makes elections interesting and entertaining—and, often, real nail-biters.
Well, this election was a good example of how we become seduced by convenient narratives. One of the obvious tools we use is history. We look back at the accumulated experience of past elections to project what might happen in the future. But this can be extremely misleading and misguided. Because it leads to the kind of thinking I hear all the time from political insiders: “X won’t happen because X has never happened before.
Let’s look back at the Big Blue Surprise of November 2022. In this election, by using history as a guide, a red wave was predicted. Inlost seats in the House, and one of those was simply due to a post–9/11 blush of support for the incumbent. On top of that, the Republicans seemed on the offensive on three key issues that were plaguing the Democrats: the troubled state of the economy, crime, and immigration.
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