Economic and political challenges make Beijing nervous, potentially threatening Macau’s flow of mainland visitors.
Hong Kong protests have expanded from opposing a controversial extradition bill to calls for greater government accountability., ongoing anti-government protests in Hong Kong have had little direct impact on Macau tourism and gaming to date. But resulting disruptions and the larger issues the protests raise create tensions in Beijing and beyond that cast ominous shadows on Macau.
Taking another facet of the broader view, Morgan Stanley believes that since the opening of the bridge, only 2% to 3% of mainland visitors transit via Hong Kong . JPMorgan regional analyst DS Kim estimates that one in eight mainland visitors to Macau arrive via Hong Kong, including the airport, now more convenient to Macau with the bridge. Kim estimates the maximum exposure of Macau gross gaming revenue to a dip in mainland visitation via Hong Kong is 6% to 7%.
Adding more cities to FITS, also known as the Individual Visitor Scheme , ranks high on Macau casino operators’ wish list. However, citizens in neither Macau nor Hong Kong can actually accommodate more mainland visitors, so extending IVS wouldn’t be much of a carrot.
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