How the UK’s coronavirus epidemic compares to other countries
Deaths and confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK have been doubling every three days, and on Friday the country experienced its biggest increase in deaths so far.
Experts in the field would expect those wider cases to also follow a similar pattern: doubling every few days. That's because viruses multiply and so do the numbers of people infected by them. They keep multiplying at a constant rate until they run out of people to infect or measures to slow the spread take effect.
Thankfully, there haven't been enough deaths in the UK yet for us to draw a settled trend from 100, so our trend line starts from 10.As of 27 March, the UK has seen 759 deaths. If the speed of doubling continued, we would expect to see another 750 deaths in the following three days and 1,500 in the 2.5 days after that. But is that speed faster or slower in the UK than in other countries?Italy has the most advanced epidemic in Europe, with the most confirmed cases and the most deaths.
Does that mean the UK is only a few weeks behind a peak like Italy's? Not necessarily. Each country has a different healthcare system and is taking different measures to control the spread of the virus. The number of deaths depends both on the spread of the virus and the treatment that people can access when they have it.Image copyrightA paper released on Friday projected that fewer than 7,000 people would die of coronavirus in the UK in total.
Scientists expect that each infected person will infect about 2.5 other people on average. As each of them infect another 2.5 and so on, a month multiplying at that pace leads to more than 400 new infections.
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