Will anyone break into the top-tier, currently composed of Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders?
ON SEPTEMBER 12th, ten Democratic presidential candidates will face off in Houston, Texas, in the first debate to take place on a single evening. The previous two debates split the 20-candidate field across two nights each. For this round, the Democratic National Committee imposed stricter standards. Ten candidates failed to meet the DNC’s threshold of 2% support in four DNC-approved polls and at least 130,000 unique donors.
Around another dozen or so other candidates are polling at 2% or less. They are free to stay in the race as long as their pride and money will allow. For independently wealthy candidates such as John Delaney, that may be until the Iowa caucuses in February. Tim Ryan and Amy Klobuchar, both solid but uninspiring Midwestern candidates, may face a reckoning sooner. For the entire field, there are three big questions.
But much of Mr Biden’s appeal rests on the premise that he is the most “electable” candidate—the one best positioned to claw back upper-Midwest Obama-Trump voters. That sort of argument has thrown up candidates on both sides who went on to lose: John Kerry and Mrs Clinton for the Democrats; Mitt Romney and Bob Dole for Republicans. Ms Warren’s supporters want her to be president; Mr Sanders’s supporters are equally devoted to their candidate.
A good ground game could still deliver Ms Harris strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, followed by a win in South Carolina. And she will no doubt shine in the debates. But it is hard to see her suddenly rising to the top. In policy terms she aligns more neatly with Mr Biden than the progressives, but our poll aggregator shows that she is the second choice for most Warren supporters, and third, behind Ms Warren, for Mr Biden’s fans. Banking on Ms Warren faltering seems a risky strategy.
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