Can humanity last another 400,000 years? We might have to if we want to talk to another technological civilization.
” The authors are Wenjie Song and He Gao, both from the Department of Astronomy at Beijing Normal University. The paper is published in The Astrophysical Journal.
Studying other civilizations in any way is confounding because we only have one data point: humans on Earth. Still, many researchers have tackled the question as a kind of thought experiment, using rigorous scientific guidelines. OneHow many CETIs might exist is tied up with how long we might have to wait to hear from one. “We have always wanted to know the answers to the following questions. First, how many CETIs exist in the Milky Way? This is a challenging question.
If you’re skeptical about any of this, you’re not alone. We can’t know scientifically how many other civilizations there are, or even if any exist. We’re not knowledgeable enough. Studies like this are part of an ongoing conversation we have with ourselves about our predicament. Each one helps us think about the context of our civilization.
This study carries some of that same thinking forward. It deals with two parameters, both of which are poorly understood. The first concerns how many terrestrial planets are habitable and how often life on these planets evolves into a CETI. The second is at which stage of a host star’s evolution would a CETI be born.
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