In Argentina, the IMF has been neither toxic nor triumphant

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In Argentina, the IMF has been neither toxic nor triumphant
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Even the opposition has resigned itself to the IMF’s plan

is it to throw a man ten feet of rope if he is drowning in 20 feet of water?” asked Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the, in this newspaper 15 years ago. His question still bothers the institution he used to advise. Last June the fund uncoiled its biggest-ever loan: $50bn for Argentina. Four months later it added $6bn more. It hoped its generosity would rescue Argentina and salvage its reputation in a country that regards it as complicit in the economic disasters of 2001-02.

The first thing a drowning man should do is jettison excess weight. Argentina’s government, led by Mauricio Macri, has slashed its fiscal deficit, aiming to balance the budget this year, excluding interest payments and some capital and social spending approved by theGet our daily newsletterBut such fiscal rigour will be hard to sustain. And imports are not the only claim on Argentina’s dollars.

That return is possible because growth has been slow to recover and inflation hard to repress: consumer prices rose by over 57% in the year to May. High inflation has put downward pressure on the peso . The peso’s falls have, in turn, put upward pressure on prices. Argentines are quick to convert their deposits into foreign currency, and many wages and prices are set with an eye on the dollar. It is thus hard to stabilise prices without also stabilising the exchange rate.

The fund, and its biggest shareholder, America, seem eager to give this government the benefit of the doubt. For its part, the government has not blamed the fundwhen Néstor Kirchner, Ms Fernández’s husband, was president in 2005, has said it will not walk away from the programme if it wins the election, though it will seek to renegotiate the terms.

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