The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, will fall further in the coming months and is expected to drift back to trade around where it is now in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists.
the rupee has traded within a 80.88-82.95 per dollar range this year and was just above 82.10 on Tuesday. It was expected to stay in that range over the forecast horizon.
However, a fifth of respondents forecast the currency will change hands at 82.90/dollar or weaker as early as next month. The U.S. Federal Reserve's indication it is near the end of an historically aggressive tightening cycle provided some relief to most currencies last month, with the rupee up 0.6%. But the poll expects the currency to come under pressure again.
While the Reserve Bank of India has raised its repo rate far less than the Fed during this cycle, it also has less scope to lower borrowing costs over the forecast period, Gupta said.
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