Infectious disease experts don’t know how bad the coronavirus is going to get, either. Via FiveThirtyEight:
. They think there’s a 73 percent chance of a second wave of hospitalizations this fall. And they expect approximately 200,000 deaths in the U.S. by the end of the year.
Collecting responses in this form captures both the best-guess estimate from each respondent and the uncertainty surrounding it.
At the time the survey was in the field, about 3,500 cases had been reported. But the experts estimated that by Sunday, March 29 — a little under two weeks after they took the survey — the country would have seen anywhere from 10,000 to 75,000 cases. The experts’ confidence in those estimates, however, varied greatly:
The consensus forecast generated by the individual responses indicates that we should expect roughly 19,000 reported cases by March 29, with an 80 percent chance of seeing between 10,500 and 81,500 cases.Experts estimated that, on March 15, when the CDC had publicly identified about 3,500 cases, only between 5 percent and 40 percent of actual COVID-19 cases had been reported. But experts’ confidence in those numbers was shaky.
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