The safe-third country agreement is morally and legally precarious—and a potential game-changer
HONDURAS HAS a little over 9m people—or at least it did. Around 2.2% of the population have been snatched by agents at America’s southern border since October. More still have slipped past; others dream of an escape. Your correspondent is writing this from Tegucigalpa, the capital, where a mood of puzzled gloom prevails among those pondering the exodus. The government, sensing a harsh verdict on its rule, prefers not to mention it.
Neither qualm seems to bother Guatemala’s president, Jimmy Morales. Against the will of virtually all of his country’s political class, he negotiated the deal in secret for weeks. Now the work begins to justify it, by insisting that Guatemala is a good place to shelter refugees. Guatemala’s murder rate last year, which has fallen by half since 2009 to 22.4 per 100,000 people, is lower than not only Mexico’s but also that of a dozen American cities.
This last problem may not materialise. That migrants already roam Central America with such ease shows how asylum papers are not the necessity in Guatemala that they are in America. Moreover, most migrants do not want to live in Guatemala. They flock to America for well-paying jobs and reunions with relatives, neither of which Guatemala offers. The probable goal, rather, is to deter.
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