We have a trio of “new” NHL stats releasing at The Athletic today — just in time for the playoffs: Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating and Net Rating. domluszczyszyn isn't reinventing the wheel here; just repackaging it. A crash course for fans ⤵️
and their expected goal differential is indeed higher . Net Rating instead leans toward the Kings, who are a much stronger defensive team.
GSVA is essentially a WAR metric meaning it measures player value in wins above replacement. A lot of hockey fans have come to be familiar with the terminology over the years and what is and isn’t a good WAR — but the idea of “replacement level” can still be a bit cumbersome at times. To players who may pay attention to these stats, being at something called “replacement level” or even below it can be taken as a slight which we should perhaps be more sensitive to.
The unit of measurement being used for Offensive and Defensive Rating is goals, since what the model is and always has tried to predict is goal differential anyway. Not wins. That’s a small difference, but a big one in the grand scheme when thinking about the age-old question “Why does your model hate my team?” A lot of the time the reason is that team’s record doesn’t match their goal differential which is oftentimes a sign of good or bad luck.
That’s all well and good, but introducing this all just before the playoffs start will likely leave a lot of people in the dark. Forgive us for that, but a little bit of work now will be worth it in the long run with the ability to better separate a player’s contributions to the two sides of the game.
GSVA and Net Rating aren’t drastically different in how they view players. There are some minor differences here and there as strong defensive players receive a bit more credit for their work without the puck — a more accurate accounting of that based on predictive value. But it’s not changing the fact that a good player by GSVA will still be a good player by Net Rating. They just might rank 20th or 40th instead of 30th. Or anywhere in between.
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