Long-term bond yields plunging below short-term ones is a good predictor of Fed rate cuts and an economic slowdown—but a recession is no guarantee, James Mackintosh writes.
The market’s most reliable recession indicator is finally flashing red. With the Treasury yield curve inverting on Friday—the 10-year yield fell sharply to be lower than the three-month for the first time since 2007—is it finally time to prepare for an economic downturn?
The answer is nuanced. It is true that the yield curve is the best forecasting tool for recessions, having inverted before each of the last seven recessions as measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Singapore Latest News, Singapore Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Yield curve recession indicator flashes red as 10-year yield falls below 3-month yieldThe yield curve as measured by the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill and the 10-year note inverted for the first time since 2007, following a sharp...
Read more »
Potential recession signal: A key 'yield curve' has inverted
Read more »
Explainer - What is an inverted yield curve?WHAT ARE TREASURY YIELDS? Treasury yields are a measure of the annualised return an investor can expect to receive for holding a government bond to maturity. Yields are determined by the bond's price relative to its stated interest rate.
Read more »
Morgan Stanley: Get defensive because the inverted yield curve is sending a messageInvestors should 'remain defensively positioned' on stocks, Morgan Stanley's equity strategist Michael Wilson said on Monday.
Read more »
What the Yield Curve Inversion Really Means, According to the Professor Who Discovered It'Importantly, my model argues that a yield curve inversion must be realized for a full quarter—not merely a few days,' writes Campbell Harvey. 'So we are not quite there — but the trend suggests we will soon be there.'
Read more »
Flattened yield curve reason to be nervous, but US economy solid - Fed's EvansChicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday it was under...
Read more »
Fed's Evans says have to be nervous about yield curve, but U.S. economy solidChicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday it was under...
Read more »
Flattened yield curve reason to be nervous, but U.S. economy solid: Fed's EvansChicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday it was under...
Read more »
Why everyone's so hung up on the recession red flag called 'the yield curve'When 'the yield curve' inverts in the bond market, recessions typically follow.
Read more »
The Yield Curve Just Inverted. What Does That Mean?The yield curve is the difference between the yields on longer-term and shorter-term Treasuries. A yield curve inversion happens when long-term yields fall below short-term yields. It has historically been viewed as a reliable indicator of upcoming recessions.
Read more »