Stock market investors may be glad to see August go, but September might not be any better, unless there are some positive developments in the trade war.
Investors will be watching to see how the incoming data affects the bond market and most importantly, the Fed. The Fed meets Sept. 17 and 18, and it is expected to cut rates by a quarter point though some bond strategists say it could cut by a half percentage point if the economy softens or markets are highly volatile.
Economists expect 155,000 jobs were added in August, down from 164,000 in July, according to Refinitiv. They expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7% and average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3%. Tilley said job growth appears to be at its weakest of the cycle. The government's Bureau of Labor Statistics recently revised its job data to show 501,000 fewer jobs from March 2018 to March 2019. Tilley said he looked at the adjustment by spreading the reductions over the period, and it shows job growth was reduced by 41,750 in each of those months.
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