Inflation and the Fed. The twin forces that dominated markets this year are about to have a big week.
Both events have the possibility to generate big market moves, which could make this horrible year look significantly better, or worse, going into the final stretch of trading in 2022.Look at your 401 statement! Or maybe don't! Uncomfortably high inflation and the Fed's effort to wrest it under control with sharp interest rate hikes clobbered the markets this year.The U.S. bond market — as measured by the Bloomberg U.S.
print kicked off a massive reaction: The S&P 500 climbed 5.5% on Nov. 10 in its best one-day gain since 2020.Fed watchers think the central bank will only raise by half a percentage point on Wednesday — marking a slowdown after four straight increases of three-quarters of a point.With markets fairly certain that the slowdown in rate hikes will begin, investors will be looking for any indication that plans to pause hikes altogether could be coming into view.
On this point, economists will be watching the Fed's official statement to see whether it continues to include the phrase "ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate" — and if it doesn't, that suggests that we might be nearing the end of the rate-hiking cycle.With less than a month left in an awful 2022, the fate of the markets remains all about the Fed and inflation.
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